U of T gynaecological oncology

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Modeling the Gynecologic Oncology Workforce Using System Dynamics
Rebecca Jacqueline Chan
W Michael Carter
Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Forecasting; Gynecologic oncology; Health human resource planning; Surgical oncology; System dynamics; Workforce planning
Issue Date:
Abstract (summary):
This research seeks to better understand the workforce needs within gynecologic oncology using health human resource planning and system dynamics modeling. Historical cancer surgeries were obtained from CIHI for 2004-2011 and forecasted for 2012-2032 using double exponential smoothing. A system dynamics model consisting of the fellowship population, aging provider population, and patient need population was developed. The model predicted that 94 new FTEs will need to be hired during 2012-2032. We assumed that in the current environment, the enrolment rate changes based on the workforce shortage or surplus, which results in an oscillating effect between these variables. Therefore, predetermining the fellowship enrolment rate should be undertaken to reduce the oscillation. Transferring follow-up appointments to nurse practitioners proved effective for reducing the workforce shortage, but more research is required into implementation. A similar approach could be used to model the workforce in other medical specialties.


About garyskeete

ASHWORTH MEDICINE-Professional Medical Assisting, Doctor of Science,Legal Assistant Diploma BSc Criminal Justice PhD Computational Neuroscience MD DSC Epigenetics
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